Some people have previously revealed a law: a lot of industry, first invented by the Americans, the Americans made first wave of money, then transferred to Japan, South Korea, mainland China, Taiwan. The four players as in the fight of playing card, each other tries their best to kill the rest. But in turn winning the game. At last earn money from people all around the world. This law is the most applicable in the electronics industry.
War of memory, crazy prices behind the industry
On February 3, 2012, CEO Steve Appleton, CEO of Magnesium Technology, a world-renowned memory manufacturer, was driving an airplane at Boise, Idaho, USA. Lancair IV-PT propeller aircraft, to the audience to perform. Shortly after the take-off, the aircraft lost control, emergency landing failed, directly planted to the ground, died on the spot, CEO at the age of 51 years old.
Steve's death does not bring big falldown on Magnesium's price. While the other side of the ocean called Sakamoto Yukio (Yukio Sakamoto) of the Japanese are anxious like ants on the wok. Before the plane, Appleton had just talked to him about a secret agreement, for Sakamoto Masahiro as president of the Japanese memory giant Elpida, the agreement is on the life insurance book.
Elpida is the Japanese chip industry, "national team" by the Hitachi, NEC and Mitsubishi's memory manufacturing business merged, once the scenery is infinite. But after the financial crisis in 2008, the memory industry surplus, product prices continue to fall, coupled with the squeeze of Korean manufacturers, Elpida business continues to deteriorate. Although the Japanese government has repeatedly rescued, still can not save, by the end of 2011, Elpida has accumulated days of the amount of debt and losses.
Banks all over the world like sunny umbrella. The only condition for granting renewals and capital injection is to introduce a large-scale memory vendor as a strategic shareholder before the end of February 2012, otherwise, the Japanese policy investment bank, Can only go away regardless. And then have the qualification to access the disk has been less than a few, put aside the rivals South Korea, leaving only magnesium light.
Sakamoto Yukio vs. Steve Appleton talked for a few months, the key terms have been talked about, the results of the thunder rolling, leaving only about 20 days away from the deadline, like racing, parachuting, Biao aircraft, Scuba diving of Appleton hammer hammer, shares of things are indefinitely postponed, there is no plan B Sakamoto Hsiungu tears. February 27, 2012, Elpida declared bankrupt.
A number of industry transport, with the so-called national transport, often with some strange chance.
Elpida bankruptcy in 2012, for the manufacture of Japan, is a bad year. This year, Japan's electronics industry collapsed across the board. First, the semiconductor field in addition to Elpida bankruptcy, another giant Renesas also into a crisis; followed by Panasonic, Sony, Sharp three giants of the total loss reached a record 1.6 trillion yen; the last is the overall electronics industry Of the output value, only about 12 trillion yen, less than 2000 (26 trillion) half.
Japan's "lost decade", usually refers to the 1991 burst after the decade of the bubble burst. But from the beginning of 91, Japan's two industries are still contrarian, is the bubble burst after the support of the yen exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves of the key. The two industries, one is the car, one is the electronics. 1991 NHK deliberately made a program, called "electronic founding - Japan's autobiography", the electronics and automotive industry side by side, the Sony Matsushita and other companies put out a few treasures, proud of the feelings of words.
2000 is a watershed. In this year, the output value of cars and electronics is still evenly matched, after the two parted ways. The automotive industry continues to go to sea, Toyota Honda Nissan in the global position steadily increased. But the electronics industry is deteriorating, not only the output value in 10 years to reduce the half, 2013 is a trade deficit, has been extremely powerful Japanese electronics industry, exports even less than imports, it is difficult to imagine.
However, Elpida's bankruptcy, in addition to the Japanese manufacturing environment, the main reason is from the roller coaster-style memory price fluctuations. Electronic products usually give the impression that the annual price cuts, spend the same money each year, you can buy something better. But the memory industry is fresh and refined, the price trend with chemical products similar to the strong cyclical, ups and downs, up to the number of money from the number of the whole body trembling, kill the price to fussy even their own to death cut.
Strong cyclical industry, usually have such a number of characteristics: 1. Product standardization is high, the user is weak, who is cheap to buy who; 2. Industry with economies of scale, large-scale production can effectively spread low cost; Assets, depreciation is huge, once the production can not stop, loss should also bite the bullet and production, at least there is cash flow; 4. industry pattern is not stable, there is no price alliance, prices manufacturers want to crazy expansion of rivalry, When the bankruptcy through the merger to achieve the production capacity. Memory in line with all the above characteristics.
Memory of the official name is called "memory", is one of the three pillars of the semiconductor industry. 2016 global semiconductor market size of 340 billion US dollars, accounting for 76.8 billion US dollars of storage. For all the electronic products around your mobile phone, tablet, PC, notebook, etc., the memory is similar to steel in the modern industry, is a veritable electronic industry "raw materials". If the memory subdivision, can be divided into DRAM, NAND Flash and Nor Flash three, which DRAM is mainly used for PC memory (such as DDR) and mobile phone memory (such as LPDDR), both each accounted for three percent, What is done, that is, DRAM.
DRAM field after several decades of cycle, players from the 80's 40 to 50, gradually reduced to the 2008 financial crisis before the five, namely: Samsung (Korea), SK Hynix (Korea), Qimonda (Germany), Micron (US) and Elpida (Japan), five companies basically control the global DRAM supply, end product manufacturers such as Kingston, almost no DRAM production capacity, have to purchase raw materials to them. In accordance with common sense, the pattern has stabilized, the price war should be died down, unfortunately, Koreans do not agree, especially Samsung.
Samsung took full advantage of the strong cycle characteristics of the memory industry, relying on the government's blood transfusion, in the price decline, overproduction, other companies to reduce investment when the contrarian crazy expansion, through large-scale production to further kill the product price, Exit the market and even directly bankrupt, the world called "anti-cyclical law." In the field of memory, Samsung has a total of three times "anti-cyclical law", the first two occurred in the mid-80s and early 90s, so that Samsung from scratch, the memory of the boss position. But Samsung apparently did not feel enough to play, so before and after the 2008 financial crisis, the third raised the "anti-cyclical" butcher.
At the beginning of 2007, Microsoft introduced the vivid memory of the Vista operating system, DRAM manufacturers to determine the memory demand will increase, so have on the production capacity, Vista sales less than expected, DRAM oversupply prices plummeted, coupled with the 2008 financial crisis worse, DRAM The price of the grain from the $ 2.25 avalanche to $ 0.31. At this point, Samsung made a staggering action: the 2007 Samsung Electronics total profit of 118% of the DRAM expansion business, deliberately exacerbate the industry losses, to the difficult days of opponents, coupled with the last straw.
The effect is significant. DRAM prices all the way down, in 2008 fell below the cash cost, 08 end is below the cost of materials. In early 2009, the third German manufacturers Qimonda first could not hold, declared bankruptcy, the European continent memory players disappeared. At the beginning of 2012, the fifth of Elpida declared bankruptcy, once occupied the DRAM market share of more than 50% of Japan, also lost the last card. In the evening of the announcement of the bankruptcy of Elpida, Gyeonggi Province, Samsung headquarters overnight, the next day the stock rose, the world knows that the Korean people won this time.
At this point, the DRAM field eventually only three players: Samsung, Hynix and Magnesium light. Elpida's bankruptcy, in 2013, was replaced by a new CEO's magnesium light to more than 20 billion dollars in price package away. 20 billion dollars is a jump property prices, 5 years later, the market value of magnesium from less than 10 billion US dollars rose to 46 billion, 20 billion US dollars is almost its market value of the day the amplitude.
The power of the nation to support a field, from weak to overtake, Chinese sports can only be considered entry level, Korean talent is the ancestral master. In the case of
In early 2012, after the bankruptcy of DRAM, DRAM grain prices did not immediately rise, but continue to consolidate to the second half, after the price began to soar. By October 2013, the price of DRAM has been twice as high as the price of Bilbao's bankruptcy. Three oligarchs in 2013 - 14 years after two years of good life, in 15 years and began to re-wave expansion, resulting in a short oversupply, DRAM prices began a round of decline, has been falling in mid-2016, but this time Fall, for the three oligarchs, far from the point where the bones.
In the second half of 2016, the new production capacity has been digested almost, and the market demand is still growing rapidly. DRAM production capacity before the supply of three percent of the phone, and with the mobile phone manufacturers in the memory of the "arms race", close to 60% of the DRAM production capacity to be eaten by the phone, especially in the third quarter of the season, DRAM full stock, the price Constantly jumping up, PC with the memory also followed the rise, turned into a "financial products."
Recently, there is such a piece: "2016 open Internet cafes, buy DDR4 8g memory more than 400 root, a 180 dollars .2017 this year, Internet cafes lost more than 10 million, yesterday I put the Internet cafes all sold, second-hand Memory to sell 500 a, actually earned back the money I opened the bar.
I do not know the true and false, but the memory of the price increases, there have been crazy situation. At present a DDR4 8G desktop memory, has risen to 900 yuan, and in the year 2016, the same product to sell about 200 yuan. There is a microblogging friends forget a current entry-level DDR4 16G memory = 28 inches 4K monitor = I5 processor motherboard set = 512GB 960EVO solid state = Sauter overclocking GTX1060 graphics card. If you go up again, I am afraid even the "Jedi survival" can not afford to play.
In addition to DRAM, the memory of another field NAND Flash, also faced with a similar situation. NAND Flash market players, Samsung, Toshiba / flash Di, Micron, SK Hynix, four total market share of 99%. Compared to the DRAM market, more than a Toshiba / flash Di. NAND Flash is mainly used in two areas, one is the phone's flash memory, the other is a solid-state hard drive SSD, these two areas, are the rapid growth of the field, driving NAND prices also soared.
Nor Flash market is special, although the price is up, but the logic is not the same. In the era of functional machines, mobile phones on the memory requirements are not high, Nor Flash with NOR + PSRAM XiP architecture, widely used. But to the era of intelligent machines, a lot of memory to buy APP emerged, NOR capacity of small high-cost shortcomings on the undoubtedly, gradually replaced by NAND, the market shrinking, Samsung, Magnesium, Cypress and other companies are gradually withdraw from the NOR market.
But in the major manufacturers off Nor production line at the same time, Nor ushered in the second spring. The most important thing is the AMOLED screen needs to bring a Nor Flash for electrical compensation, AMOLED display penetration is accelerating, especially after Apple has adopted, so the demand for Nor was suddenly driven. However, companies such as Magnesium have taken a one foot and are too lazy to re-open the production line, resulting in limited supply of Nor in the market. A group of small manufacturers have benefited, such as Wang Hong, Winbond, and A Star trillion easy innovation.
It should be said, Nor market is too small, the main battlefield of the memory or DRAM and NAND, and these two areas of the pattern has been very stable, Samsung, Magnesium, Hynix, plus a sold around Toshiba. Samsung in order to pass the "anti-cyclical law" to eliminate the opponent, has been very difficult, since it can not destroy the opponent, since the loss of eight hundred suicide assault will not reproduce. The biggest possibility is that the price of the memory fluctuates with the supply / demand changes, but the industry will maintain a long-term profit situation.
The question is, so how to make money and fun, how can we less Chinese people?
Elpida 2012 bankruptcy in the early spring, purple Zhao Weiguo is in Fujian Putian engaged in a real estate project called Hagi Villa, the field of memory changes, it seems that nothing to do with him. I am afraid he will not think, 5 years later, he will shout "10 years to become the world's top five memory industry," the slogan.
But the situation has changed in the second year. In 2013, in the absence of Development and Reform Commission, "small road" in the case, but also from the hands of Pudong Branch to grab the Ryderko. Zhao Weiguo will be two companies into a holding company, named "violet show sharp", and successfully pulled Intel's 1.5 billion US dollars of shares, vote after the valuation of 7.5 billion US dollars. Compared to the acquisition of two companies spent 2.7 billion US dollars, Zhao Weiguo earned his fortune after the largest pot of gold.
Purple completed the acquisition of Ryderko in 2014, the industry's air suddenly become hot and restless, but few people will realize that 2014 will be later known as China's semiconductor "first year." Prior to this, more than a dozen academicians of the letter to the central, asked the country to support the development of the semiconductor, and received a positive response from the top, to September, the scale of 100 billion state-level fund was established in the next three years , It will completely change the ecology of China and the global semiconductor industry.
The annual import of tens of billions of dollars, the localization of nearly zero of the memory industry, naturally first entered the capital of the various fields of vision. But even domineering, such as Zhao Weiguo who did not dare to stand on numerous corpses on the Samsung Hercules to challenge, but to take a roundabout way, the strength of the weak magnesium launched a tender offer, offer 23 billion US dollars, a premium of 19%. If the acquisition is successful, according to the closing price of magnesium yesterday, magnesium market value of more than 46 billion US dollars, the deal will be more than doubled surplus.
This is not the first time that China Capital has attempted to acquire overseas semiconductor companies. As early as 2012, Lenovo's Hony Capital once combined TPG, bid for bankruptcy of Elpida. If the acquisition is successful, for the lack of core technology and parts of the association is significant, but unfortunately fall short. Since then, Hongyi no longer around the main business of Lenovo to do the industry chain M & A attempt.